Prediction On Economy In Indonesia

Hello everyone, here I will discuss about predictions that will occur in the economy in Indonesia, especially because there is a pandemic outbreak of Covid-19. based on a source I took from (economy.okezone.com) JAKARTA - Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its economic growth forecast for Indonesia. Indonesia's economy is estimated to grow 2.5% in 2020 amid the Corona Virus Pandemic. "Although Indonesia has a strong macroeconomic foundation, the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has changed the direction of the country's economy, with deteriorating external environmental conditions and weakening domestic demand," ADB Director for Indonesia, Winfried Wicklein said in his statement, Jakarta, Sunday (Sunday) 4/5/2020).

 "If decisive action can be implemented effectively to overcome the health and economic impact of the outbreak, especially to protect the poor and vulnerable, the Indonesian economy is expected to return gradually to its growth path next year," he added.

According to the 2020 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the COVID-19 pandemic along with falling commodity prices and financial market turmoil, will have bad implications for the world economy and Indonesia this year, especially with the deteriorating economy of a number of Indonesia's major trading partners. Domestic demand is expected to weaken in line with declining business and consumer sentiment.

 However, in line with the recovery of the world economy next year, Indonesia's growth is expected to gain momentum. Assisted by reforms in the investment sector issued recently.Inflation, which reached an average of 2.8% last year, is expected to rise slightly to 3.0% in 2020. Before falling again to 2.8% in 2021. Inflationary pressures from tight food supply and currency depreciation are expected to can be partially offset by the reduction in the price of non-subsidized fuel, as well as additional subsidies for electricity and food.

Meanwhile, export revenues from tourism and commodities are expected to decline, causing the current account deficit to reach 2.9% of gross domestic product in 2020. As the export and investment levels recover in 2021, a greater volume of imported capital goods will cause a deficit current account remains the same as in 2020.

The government and financial authorities have launched coordinated and targeted fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and people's livelihoods. This includes the distribution of cash transfers directly to the poor and vulnerable groups, as well as tax cuts and lenient payment of loans for workers and businesses.

Externally, the risks to the projections of the Indonesian economy are a prolonged outbreak of COVID-19, a further decline in commodity prices, and increasing financial market . From within the country, this projection depends on how quickly and effectively the outbreak can be tackled. Health system limitations and difficulties in applying social restrictions can exacerbate the impact of the pandemic on the economy.

          ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient and sustainable Asia and Pacific, and continues its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 68 members — 49 of them in the Asia and Pacific region.



Source :https://economy.okezone.com/read/2020/04/05/20/2194365/prediksi-adb-soal-ekonomi-indonesia-di-tengah-dampak-covid-19